Comparing Hurricane Idalia and Hurricane Ian
Hurricane Idalia made landfall as a category 3 hurricane this morning around 7:45 AM EDT. It is continuing to bring strong winds, torrential rain, and deadly storm surge to the sunshine state.
Category 3 Hurricane #Idalia close to landfall in the big bend of Florida. Incredible live feed from Horseshoe Beach, Florida with deadly storm surge. https://t.co/VMwyMYA30Ipic.twitter.com/sDxAcBwLrc
— Chris Bouzakis (@ChrisBouzakis) August 30, 2023
For many, these impacts are reminiscent of another “I” storm from just last year - Hurricane Ian. An “I” named storm in general is often bad news, names starting with the letter “I” are retired more than any other letter with 14 names in retirement.
As far as similarities between the two storms goes, they both reached category 4 status. although Ian also reached category 5 status. They both also made landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida. The largest difference between the two storms - and arguably the most important - is where they made landfall.
Hurricane Ian made landfall near Fort Myers, a densely populated area but also a city that was not initially expected to see the eye wall. Landfall was originally expected near Tampa, but actually happened in Charlotte Harbor, more than 50 miles south.
The track of Ian shifted many times during the days leading up to landfall, this uncertainty made evacuation orders very difficult to issue with some groups not given enough time to get out.
Hurricane Idalia’s track on the other hand has been fairly steady over the past few days with the eye having been expected to cross onto land in the Big Bend region of Florida. Consistency of forecast models made evacuation orders a bit easier to make, but so has the better understanding of the forecast cone and the uncertainty it is meant to communicate.
The purpose of the forecast cone is to show the possibility of where the eye of the hurricane could go, but it is often misinterpreted as the forecasted size of the hurricane. This better understanding has helped for people to not rely too heavily on a forecasted track days out to recommend evacuation.
As damage reports come in over the next few days, we will have to see just how similar the societal impacts of Idalia and Ian end up being.