Lake enhanced vs lake effect systems

Most of us here in Michiana know first-hand about lake effect snow, but lake effect precipitation is just one of lake-related phenomena that could help beef up snow or rain totals. First, let’s break down the lake effect precipitation, which happens when cold air moves over a warmer lake, the moisture of the lake gets released into the air and moves upward, creating clouds that will bring precipitation to the area on the windward side of the lake. Most of the time that just so happens to fall on us. Lake effect precipitation usually isn’t rain because you need the colder air for the process to work, and if the temperatures are similar you will likely not get as much out of it, if any rain out of it. Lake enhanced precipitation, however, is caused by a preexisting disturbance in the region, think a cold front or low-pressure system. If one of these passes over the lake, and the lake is warmer than the air moving above it, you will likely see the same process of moisture going into the atmosphere. All of the moisture goes somewhere; thus, rainfall totals and snowfall totals get an extra boost. Thus, one of the main differences between lake enhanced and lake effect is that enhanced can produce rain and snow. Lake enhanced also happens with a disturbance, lake effect snow can happen in normal as long as the wind is right.

A lot of what will happen early Saturday morning will depend on where the low-pressure system will end up in relation to Michiana. Surface lows travel with the jet stream, but that is a wide area in the upper atmosphere and could end up anywhere. Most models at this time have the low going to the north of us, timing is also a factor we need to consider. What will likely happen is during Friday, the cold front will pass over us bringing us widespread showers, and since it is moving over the warmer lake, it will kick up some of that moisture, and more showers will continue to make their way into our area, until the low pressure passes us by and the wind shifts directions, then other areas could be seeing the lake enhanced precipitation.