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No warming trend in sight

If warmer temperatures are something you are hoping for, the forecast won't be putting a smile on your face. We have been below normal since late last week, and that trend will continue. The rest of this week looks cooler-than-normal with the warmest temperature coming Friday at 57°. That may be optimistic. A reinforcing shot of cool air arrives for the weekend, which will keep highs in the 40s and low 50s at best.

Likelihood of below average temperatures for the last week of October. Climate Prediction Center
Beyond this weekend, everything points toward a continuation of the chilly pattern. Per the Climate Prediction Center, there is a pretty good chance that the last week of October goes down as below average with highs in the 40s and low to mid-50s. The reason behind the chilly second half of the month will be a series of cold fronts, each of which will bring colder temperatures with it. We simply won't break that pattern.

That means the likelihood of seeing any day at or above 60° is very low. Even more, the period of October 17th thru Halloween may not feature a single temperature above 57°! That is not a common thing to see in October considering the average high temperature in South Bend is still 62° as of the 16th. 

Putting all of this information together, the result will be a lengthy stretch of days below normal overall; a stretch that is rare. By the time November 1st arrives, South Bend will have had a good chance to have strung together 21 consecutive days below average dating back to October 11th. To put that in perspective, the last time South Bend saw a streak of at least 21 straight days below normal came in February and March of 2015! This could wind up being one of the longest such streaks in South Bend history.

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