Earliest fall snowflakes dates and November precipitation outlook
We made it through the month of October 2021 without seeing any snowflakes - however, we likely won't be able to say the same thing as we head into November.
It's been 194 days since our last snow (which happened on April 21, 2021) in South Bend. Many people are hoping to keep this streak going, however, this time of year is typically when we start seeing our first fall snowflakes.
You might remember a few snowflakes on November 1 of last year, which was the first snow date for fall 2020. You almost might remember trick-or-treating with some spooky snowflakes on Halloween, October 31, 2019.
The average first day for measurable snow on the ground (more than 0.1") is November 8, which is one week from now.
There have been years where the snow has held off until much later. In 1998, there wasn't measurable snow in South Bend until December 17 (about a week before Christmas).
We could see a few lake effect flurries or wintry mix on Wednesday morning this week, but it there isn't any measurable snow in the latest 10-day forecast. You don't need to get out your snow shovel anytime soon.
Are we expecting a lot of precipitation this month? The latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is here, and it's a bit of a toss up. Michiana has equal chances (the gray color) or above or below normal precipitation amounts for the month.
Typically, we start to see lower amounts of precipitation by November and leading into the cooler winter months. On average, the month picks up 2.78" of rain and 5.1" of snow.