May temperature and precipitation outlook

May is just around the corner, and most are probably hoping for a hint of summer type weather. We may be in luck. Model trends and outlooks show us with a higher probability of seeing above average temperatures. The average high for the entire month of May is 70 degrees. To start may the average usually holds in the upper 60s and towards the end of May the lower 70s. With indications of warmer air winning out, it's more probable that we will see highs at or above this average. Don't let that fool you though because the first half of the month of May has a history of bringing below freezing low temperatures. Last year we hit the freezing mark and below twice. In some brighter news, last May high temperatures hit 70 degrees for 7 days, 80 degrees for 4 days, and 90 degrees on 1 day. Warmer temperatures are going to be very important, but not as important as rain.

Most of this year we have been operating on a rainfall deficit. Right now that deficit, since January 1st, is around 1.75 inches. Due to the lack of rain we are seeing drought conditions throughout all of Michiana. This doesn't bring a huge problem for crops and gardens just yet, but could if the dry trend holds intact through the entire month, especially once crops start to sprout. Looking at the good news, outlooks have us seeing above average rainfall for this month. The average amount of rainfall for May is 3.83". Last May we saw 14 days of rain. Of those 14 days 4 had above 0.5" of rain, and 1 had above 1" of rain. With both outlooks in place, we hope that both hold true, getting us back on the right track before the summer months arrive.