Thursday brings another threat for heavy rain and possibly localized flooding. Some rivers are forecast to rise to flood stage after the excessive rainfall.

Forecast 

Thursday will be a rainy day, steady rain will fall from start to finish, heavy downpours are possible. Estimates for most the area range between a half and two inches. The more south and east the greater the likelihood for heavy rain.

Models

There still is quite a bit of disagreement in the models as to how far north and west the heavy rainfall will reach. The GFS bring in a good soaking for everyone while the NAM has a sharp cutoff right in the middle of the area.

Looking at two spot forecasts we can say with moderate confidence South Bend has a possibility of heavy rain, up to an inch or more. In Warsaw, we can say with higher confidence there will be heavy rain of an inch or more and likely higher.

The track and some small scale influences will become more apparent as we approach Thursday.

Rivers

Most rivers are not at flood stage but the Tippecanoe river basin has already seen significant rainfall this week and this spring. The River is already at action stage in Pulaski county and forecast to rise and crest near major flood stage. Parts of Kosciusko, Fulton and Pulaski counties should be on alert for river flooding.

Long Range:

The end of the week is rain but after that there's plenty of dry weather forecast through most of next week.

Stay with the ABC-57 First Warning Neighborhood Weather team for updates and alerts.

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