SOUTH BEND, Ind. -- Winter can be a battle, a fight between us and mother nature. Michiana is known for cold, snowy winters. However, it’s been eight years since we’ve had a knockout winter, 84 inches of snow in 2017-2018. That was also the last truly cold winter with an average temperature of 25.9°F. Since 2000, winter has had a steady warming trend.
Winter is Warming
All winters this decade have had near or much below normal snowfall and near or much above normal temperatures, including the second warmest winter on record, with an average temperature of 34.7° and just 26.4 inches of snow.
This year’s Winter Knockout tells the forecast through the lens of a boxing match, with three rounds, just as winter has three months, December, January, and February.
“Heat Wave” is undefeated this decade, but the old champ “Cold Front” is looking to put of a fight and land a few punches this winter.
La Niña
The classic La Niña pattern favors a northwesterly flow which is more favorable to snow and cold. The latest trend shows the pattern weakening through winter and may not have a huge influence on winter. What’s more important in this fight is it’s not an El Niño year, that patten correlates to some of our warmest winters and heavily favors Heat Wave.
Odds
Any good fight has odds
The probability of La Niña happening is high, because it’s already happening and likely to continue through the first half of winter (probability 53 percent). However, by the end of winter, ENSO (El Niño, La Niña, Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions are favored (57 percent).
The CPC (Climate Precision Center) forecast leans heavily on a La Niña influence. The temperature outlook locally is Equal Chances, meaning there is no statistical advantage for warmer or colder weather. While the precipitation outlook is 43 percent favorable for a wetter (or snowier) than normal winter, December – January – February.
We had a little fun with this and turned these probabilities into betting odds, for the fight. La Niña is the LOCK. Temperatures are a toss-up, and precipitation leaves near-above normal.
Round 1 – December
This beginning of winter has not been very cold or snowy; the warm season is lasting longer. Recent Decembers have not packed much of a punch. Since 2017, there has only been one December with above normal snowfall, many with less than four inches of snow.
The milder weather -- in addition to preventing snowfall -- also limits snow accumulation. The 14 inches of snowfall in South Bend in mid-November melted almost as quickly as it accumulated, with the ground remaining warmer longer as well.
Snowpack as of Tuesday, November 11, 2025. One day after 14 inches of snow in South Bend.
So round one favors Heat Wave, especially with milder than normal weather expected through the end of November.
There is some new data that shows the cold will return in December, but that cold will have to fight through the already established warmth in much of North America.
That is why in out boxing match, the long reach Heat Wave is so formidable, the cold struggles to land a punch early in this fight.
Round 2 – January
January is the coldest and snowiest month historically; winter still finds a way to winter, most years. January 2023 -- the second warmest winter on record -- stands out, with only 7.5 inches of snow but most years, near-normal snowfall has happened, but we’ve not has a blockbuster January, recently.
In our boxing match, Cold Front lands some punches and Heat Wave shows signs of weakening but still batters. Round two is a draw.
Round 3 – February
This is the make-or-break round for any winter; early February is typically when our biggest bouts of snow and cold happen, and historically a knockout blow. The last time this happened was February 2018.
This year, the combination of a La Niña pattern and a tendency for the Polar Vortex to weaken and wobble our way is the one-two punch Cold Front will need to land to win this fight, and it’s mostly likely to happen in early February. If the knockout blow doesn’t happen, Heat Wave is likely to gain a second wind, as temperatures start to warm towards spring.
Winter Wins
Winter 2026 will be a colder, snowier winter than we’ve had this decade. It’s less that there are highly favorable conditions for cold and snow than conditions that would favor a warm, snow-free winter. If we can align the cold air with a favorable storm track, big snow is possible, that could push us over-the-top, with a knockout blow this winter.
This forecast does not include any snowfall before Dec. 1, this is a winter forecast through Feb. 28, 2026. Why do we do it this way? It's easier to compare apples-to-apples and the "winter" forecast could be right or wrong based on a rogue April snowfall.
The forecast calls for the most snow since winter 2018 but far from record-setting. Will be near normal, which would also be the cold by comparison to recent years and 4 nights below zero, which is still below normal.
