Pollsters predict "Blue Wave" could pose a threat to House Republicans in November
SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Some pollsters are predicting Democrats will make a huge splash on many congressional races in November, but just not in our area.
According to polling website FiveThirtyEight, Democrats have a 3 in 5 chance of winning control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the fall.
The party will need to pick up 24 seats to do so and some pollsters are pretty confident they’ll win up to 53 seats.
“What you see right now is conditions that we’ve seen before previous wave elections,” said Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight. “So you see Democrats ahead in swing state districts and national districts in the polls. You see Democrats raising more money. You see Republican candidates retiring. You see the president being unpopular. All of these things historically have pointed to wave elections.”
But many of them also think those seats won’t come from races in Michiana.
“Even in a blue year you’re going to have the large majority or solid majority of incumbents hold on,” said Silver.
According to the site’s data, the probability of Michigan’s 6th congressional race going to 15 time incumbent Fred Upton during the 2018 midterm election is about 85 percent.
However, Democratic challenger Matt Longjohn isn’t letting these predictions slow his campaign down.
“As voters find out more about Upton’s record, especially his vote to take away health care for people with pre-existing conditions, increase health care costs, and cut medicare, we will pick up support,” said Ben Young, Longjohn’s campaign manager in a statement.
In the Hoosier state, the probability of Jackie Walorki winning the second congressional district race is even higher at more than 92 percent.
“Our campaign doesn’t worry about outsiders reading into the race,” said Max Harris, the campaign manager for Democratic Party nominee Mel Hall, responded in a statement. “Jackie Walorski is vulnerable and she knows it.”
Silver is known for his accurate record in predicting races during the 2008 and 2012 elections.
However he also predicted Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 Presidential Election.
That claim that is giving Michiana Democrats hope for the fall.