Spring starts off quiet, likely remains warm throughout
The first day of meteorological Spring 2021 across Michiana featured a little of both winter and spring.
Some saw a brief period of flurries, and wind chills for most didn't get out of the 20s Monday. Maybe Mother Nature was reminding you about how accurate the ABC57 First Warning Neighborhood Weather Winter 2021 outlook was!
Winter forecasting is not something anyone would describe as easy.— Tom Coomes (@TomCoomes) March 1, 2021
That being said, I will take a little moment to brag, Winter Outlook 2021: A rare ‘normal’ winter, did very well. https://t.co/danawAqUON | #inwx #miwx pic.twitter.com/frlHIbHlPL
However, the sunshine was out for most of the day and the snowpack of February is almost completely gone.
Spring is always a tough three months to predict in Michiana, but 2021's try at the time period is looking warm and active, especially by the middle of March.
The Climate Prediction Center is hinting at above-normal temperatures and precipitation for the months of March, April, and May 2021 for all of Michiana.
Now, this doesn't mean there won't be any snow for Michiana over the next three months. After all, our average last day of measurable (0.1" or above) snow in South Bend is April 6.
However, the more you get into March, the harder it is to produce big snowfalls locally. Our last spring 6"+ of snow happened 8 years ago on March 5, 2013. Significant snow gets even more rare into April, although last year brought us the latest 3" snowfall in South Bend on record.
The fact that March is starting so quietly is hurting the chances of significant snow this spring.
However, significant RAINFALL could find Michiana for the second half of March. That could increase our flash flood chances, although the drought may limit our flood potential, at least in the beginning.
At this point, we don't see any reason to suspect that those side-of-the-road snow piles will grow in size anytime soon. However, we've only ever gone without snow during the spring once in South Bend recorded history: 2010.
We'll see if history repeats itself this time around.