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Temperature Tug-O-War

Could we reach 60° on Friday? It's possible at least for some areas. This forecast is a bit more difficult than most as we have some key factors working in favor of the warm-up and against it. 

Looking at one model run of Forecast Track for Friday afternoon, it appears cut and dry that most the area will warm into the mid 50s. However this model run is likely over estimating for some and underestimating for others. 

One factor where models tend to underestimate is the wind's influence, blowing warmer air in from other regions. We call this temperature advection and it can be highly underestimated when the wind is strong. The wind forecast for Friday is in the 20-30 mph range with gusts as high as 40 mph. 

Snow pack is working against the warm-up. As of Wednesday there was still 4"-6" snow depth on the ground in South Bend. Snow on the ground acts just like ice in your cooler, helping to keep temperatures down until its all melted. 

So the adjusted forecast to take this battle into account puts many into at least the mid 50s but the farther south and west you live, the more likely highs could touch 60.

The tug-o-war is between a warm wind and the snow pack. The more snow we melt prior to Friday will have a big impact and how much warm air the wind brings into Michiana will be factors that could have a 10 degree forecast difference.

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