SOUTH BEND, Ind.-- Temperatures are falling, but are you falling for the fake out? With cooler temperatures ahead, it’s tempting to dust off your flannels. However, it’s that the weather might just be pump-faking us—delaying those pumpkin spice lattes a little longer.
Over the past 10 years, from 2015 to 2024, eight out of those ten years had at least one 90-degree day in September. On its own, that might not seem too unusual. But here’s the kicker—those hot days were often preceded by a stretch of cooler weather in late August. In fact, that pattern showed up in nearly seven of those years.
This is what we call a “false fall.” It’s a brief period of relief from the summer heat—usually in late August or early September—that makes us think autumn has arrived. We have not quite arrived to fall quite yet, even if it feels like it.
Still, we can get a glimpse of what’s ahead with the latest seasonal outlook. Short term, over the next seven days, we'll start off near normal, but temperatures are expected to dip below average heading into the weekend and into next week. So—could this be a sneak peek at the fall season?
The seasonal outlook suggests a chance of above-average temperatures from September through November. In fact, the entire U.S. is forecasted to experience above-average temperatures this fall, with no regions expected to trend cooler than normal. As for precipitation, climate models indicate equal chances of above or below normal rainfall here in Michiana.
So, while the next few days may feel like fall, don’t be too quick to pack away the summer gear—this season may still have a few surprises.