Christmas Snow Forecast
UPDATE 10:30 PM -- Latest model run shows the change over just after 4 PM Wednesday. Expect wet heavy snow, this will likely be a cause for slushy roads and low visibility. The greatest impacts will be west of Michiana. As stated earlier the Indiana Toll Road and I-94 may have the trickiest travel around 5 PM EST. The brunt of this story looks to impact Chicagoland 4 PM to 8 PM CST.
Latest model trend show the changeover from rain to snow around 5 PM. The concern is a quick burst of heavy wet snow that could impact the evening drive. For most the hazard wont be the accumulation but low visibility and slush as the snow likely melts on contact with the warmer ground. One to three inches of snow is possible (Fig 1). The question is how much will stick?
The farther northwest you live the greater potential for more snow. Northwest Indiana ( Lake and Porter Co) may see the brunt of this storm system as they will have colder temperatures and some lake enhancement that could bring 2"-3" with localized higher amounts. Travel on I-94 and Toll Road Christmas Eve could be hazardous under heavy bands. Most of Michiana will see 1"-2" with higher amounts north and west and lesser amounts south and east (Fig 2)
Will we see a white Christmas? It depends on what definition you consider (Fig 3). Not everyone will see one inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning. An inch may fall but with the warm ground some or all may melt on contact. We will see snow falling Christmas Eve and there will likely be at least a coating to an inch for most of Michiana.
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