February 2024 continues to see unseasonably mild temperatures

South Bend, Ind. -- February continues to display above-average warmth in Michiana, both on land and in Lake Michigan. 

With the month halfway over, the signals for a top-10 warmest February in south bend history are becoming clearer.

While a temporary cooldown is on the way, we can expect highs around 10 degrees above average as soon as next week,

South bend is currently recording an average month-to-date (MTD) temperature of 38 degrees, about seven degrees above the historical average.

It is the warmest MTD average temperature in south bend history, acting as an indicator of how our average temperatures are currently trending.

Since 1894, five of the 10 warmest MTD average temperatures have occurred since 1990.

While this month's unseasonably high temperatures are likely being driven by a strong El Niño pattern, the increased frequency of record-setting warmer-than-average Februarys is almost certainly the result of a warming climate across Michiana. 

Southern Lake Michigan is currently sitting 2 degrees Celsius (or 36 degrees Fahrenheit), preventing widespread ice cover during a month where, historically, ice cover is close to peaking.

Mild temperatures from El Niño, among other factors, are contributing towards the lack of ice cover across most of the great lakes.

In a time where over 27% of Lake Michigan is usually covered in ice, less than 3% currently is.

Similarly, a mere 4% of the Great Lakes are covered in ice.

The lack of ice triggers a positive feedback loop that promotes even more warming of lake waters.

Less lake ice means more heat is absorbed by the water, raising its temperature, which melts any existing ice and warms the water even further.