January Outlook: Near normal temps and snowfall
The latest outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center ( CPC) shows equal chances for both temperature (Fig 2) and precipitation (Fig 3). This mean's there is not a strong probability for above or below average trends.
Medium range models show a dip in the jet stream for the first weekend of January. This will likely coincide with lake effect snowfall and below normal temperatures. However unlike last year, this does not look to be the sign or start or what's yet to come. Longer range models through mid month do show a trend towards normal to slightly below normal temperatures but no strong signal for a locked surge of arctic air. If anything it looks closer to a typical winter pattern with it's dips and rises between below and above normal temperatures.
Table 1: January Average Temperatures
|Date||Jan 1st||Jan 15th||Jan 31st|