Severe weather outlook for Thursday.Storm Prediction Center
Wednesday is shaping up to be the warmest and sunniest day of the next seven as highs push into the 80s. It won't last, though. A cold front will sweep in from the northwest by Thursday morning, bringing a chance of rain showers and a few thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms that develop could be on the stronger to perhaps severe side. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Michiana in a low-end "Marginal Risk" for severe weather.
Threats with any stronger storms will include hail, strong wind gusts and pockets of heavier rainfall. Again, the set-up doesn't look overwhelming for severe weather, but the risk is there due to the parameters that will be in place when the cold front pushes through.
It won't be an all-day event in regards to thunderstorms and severe weather. The window for any stronger storms will be 11am to 4pm. The farther east you are, the later in that window your severe weather risk will be. For example, locations in Kosciusko and LaGrange Counties will likely see the highest storm coverage after 1pm. Meanwhile, locations in Marshall and Starke Counties will likely see the highest storm coverage during the 12pm to 2pm window.
Locations with the highest probability of seeing stronger storms will be east of U.S. 31 and south of the state line. Here is a breakdown of some towns and cities:
-Nearly no severe risk: Michigan City, La Porte, New Buffalo, St. Joseph, Benton Harbor, Berrien Springs, Niles, New Carlisle
-Minimal severe risk: Knox, Hanna, Kingsford Heights, South Bend, Granger, Mishawaka, Osceola, Edwardsburg, Cassopolis, Dowagiac, Lakeville, North Liberty, Elkhart
-Best chance of a severe storm: Plymouth, Rochester, Winamac, Akron, Warsaw, Winona Lake, Goshen, Middlebury, LaGrange, Sturgis