SOUTH BEND, Ind. -   The past week has featured below normal temperatures and snowfall almost every day, an eerie feeling of deja vu  from l ast year. However this is where the comparison stops. Last year the snowy and frigid trend continued through the entire month. 

Looking at the latest long range trends, a gradual warm-up looks to be on the way for the month. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is one metric looked at closely during the winter months. The AO's trends were consulted to make the  winter  and monthly outlook. The AO is not the polar vortex ( the actual one) or the "polar vortex" ( created by the media) but it is related. The AO is the climate pattern of the winds around the arctic region,the index reflects the nature of that pattern. I talk about this in my latest video  blog. 

The latest information only adds to the previous outlook that showed below normal temperatures to start the month and near normal temperatures by the middle of the month. The trend slowly changes to above normal temperatures by the end of the month. This does not mean there won't be cold days still or snowy days. It shows the likelihood for more days with high temperatures above 32° and lows above 18° (the daily average high/low for most the month). 

Click here for the latest First Warning Neighborhood Weather forecast.