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Why a boom in mosquitoes is likely for the area

2019's mosquito outlook. pests.org
It's a warm, humid summer evening. You are having guests over for a get-together and cookout. Everything is going well until you catch yourself swatting a mosquito away from your leg. Soon after, everyone is swatting mosquito after mosquito. Sound familiar? These are the evenings we have grown accustomed to dealing with here in Northern Indiana and Southwest Michigan during the summertime. But not every day, week, month, or year is the same. Mosquito activity can vary -- sometimes quite greatly -- from day-to-day, week-to-week, month-to-month, and year-to-year.

Mosquito activity outlook for the summer months in the Midwest, including Indiana and Michigan. pests.org
A huge factor in determining mosquito activity is, of course, weather. Mosquitoes are greatly affected by both temperature and precipitation from the beginning of their life to the end. For mosquitoes to thrive, there are several meteorological factors that must be present:

•Ideally, warm weather year-round 

•Moist, tropical-like climates

•Multiple sources of standing water 

If these conditions are in place, mosquito activity will be high 365 days per year. As you're aware, Michiana does not see warmth and humidity year-round. Therefore, our mosquito season is more dependent on day-to-day weather. The following are what we look for in the Midwest when attempting to forecast mosquito activity:

•A not extremely frigid winter season

•A wet to very wet February to May 

•Periods of rain throughout the summer

•Warm and muggy days and nights:

     •A stretch of at least 7-10 days with overnight lows staying above 50° to get initial mosquito activity going

     •Daytime highs well into the 70s, 80s and even 90s

     •Overnight lows staying well into the 50s, 60s and even 70s

Precipitation outlook for the summer months. A wetter-than-normal summer is very possible. CPC
Well, we had the big blast of arctic air in late January when temperatures fell well below 0°. Moreover, each month in 2019 has been below normal overall in the temperature department. Those two tidbits are good if you despise mosquitoes. On the flip side, it has been a wetter-than-normal year to date. February, March, April, and especially May saw more precipitation than they typically do. That, of course, is bad if you dislike mosquitoes.

Looking at more recent temperature data, one will find that Mother Nature is trying Her hardest to fend off mosquitoes here in Michiana. We have yet to record a 7-10 day stretch with lows staying above the 50-degree-mark, we have seen relatively cool temps even into June, we haven't had any extended stretches of 80s, and humidity values haven't been all that high. 

Mosquito activity forecast this weekend.
All of that is good for the mosquito haters. Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end. That unwritten rule will likely hold true for us regarding our mosquito activity levels. Thru June 6th, we have yet to see any sort of substantial mosquito activity in Northern Indiana and Southwest Michigan. Looking ahead, though, activity is expected to be a little more impressive thru the upcoming weekend and early next week as highs flirt with 80° and lows stay well above 50°. By no means are we expecting a significant mosquito boom this weekend, but they will be more active than what we've been used to this year.

However, looking ahead, all things point toward a few days with lows in the upper 40s to near 50° next week. That will likely drop our activity levels back down before a warmer, more humid pattern likely returns around June 16th or so. If there's a date to circle on your calendars, it's June 16th. Beyond that, a more summer-like pattern is favored, which would likely result in a boom of mosquito activity for the first time in 2019.

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