Chance for strong to severe storms Monday afternoon/evening
9 PM UPDATE: TORNADO WATCH has been issued for all of Michiana until 3 AM Tuesday morning. Models are still showing between 10PM and midnight EDT is when these storms will sweep through the area. Damaging winds and hail are also the main threats with the severe storms that are building to the west. This is the time to make sure you have a plan in place with your family and know where your safe spot is in your home. Plus, make sure you have flashlights in case a power outage occurs. As always, stay with ABC-57 News, we'll cut into programming if warnings are put into place and stay up to date with the ABC 57 First Warning Neighborhood Weather app.
5 PM UPDATE: The clouds have finally broken this evening. The farther west you live, the more likely you see severe weather but everyone should stay weather aware through the evening. Latest models still show a line of strong to severe storms arriving after 9 PM. These storms could be strong to severe, the main threat being gusty wind. - Tom
12 PM UPDATE: All of Michiana is currently under a Category 3 (Moderate) risk for severe weather as we head into this afternoon and tonight. The forecast comes down to sunshine. A strong system has weakened throughout the morning on its approach toward Michiana. If we see even a few hours of sunshine, that will be enough to spark thunderstorms this evening and especially tonight when a cold front makes its approach after sunset.
Thunderstorms are likely tonight thanks to an incoming cold front, but the level of severity is still up in the air until we see how the afternoon plays out. More sun equals more storms for today.
The biggest threats for severe weather if it develops will be damaging wind, lightning and the potential for small hail.
For Michiana, the next threat for strong to severe thunderstorms returns Monday afternoon and evening. Here's the latest timing, the main threats, and what you need to know for your Monday plans:
Timing: Models are still not completely agreeing with one another just yet. It ultimately comes down to the set up Monday morning. It will most certainly be hazy, muggy, and hot by the afternoon hours.
First scenario: some models projecting pop-up thunderstorms as early as noon, specifically the WRF. The more thunderstorms we see earlier in the day, the weaker the storms later in the day. Images to the right are what the WRF model is showing for timing tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Second scenario: The RPM model has been showing storms holding off under Monday evening, ~8PM EDT moving through the area with that severe threat lasting until midnight. If the storms do hold off until the later evening hours and we see more sunshine into the afternoon, this scenario will most likely see the strongest thunderstorms.
Main Threats: Damaging wind is likely the main threat with these impending thunderstorms. Hail is still possible with some cells and even flooding is a threat especially under cells with heavy downpours.