Drought-busting October and a winter precipitation outlook

SOUTH BEND, Ind. -- With rain still falling across South Bend and Michiana, the newest U.S. Drought monitor report shows good news for our area.

The excess rainfall we've seen so far in October has put Michiana over the hump of drought and given us two consecutive weeks of drought-free weather, a rarity for this year. 

We've spent over half the year with at least one county in Michiana under moderate drought conditions or worse.

In total, we've seen 161.15 days (or 23 weeks) of drought out of 42 weeks so far this year.

While drought conditions may return, if current rain trends continue, the likelihood of drought in Michiana goes down substantially. 

South Bend has collected just under four and a half inches of rain in the first month of October alone and shows no signs of stopping before the month's end.

In the longer term as Michiana gets ready for winter, precipitation might become a bit sparser.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) recently released the winter temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S., featuring a warmer and drier outlook for Michiana.

Outlooks are not forecasts; the former is focused on a much larger, more seasonal timescale. 

Michiana is looking down the barrel of a warmer and drier Winter with less precipitation throughout the season.

While the outlook is based on a multitude of factors, one of the foremost reasonings for this winter's predictions is El Niño, a warm pattern that resides over the southern Pacific Ocean.