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I'm dreaming of a white...Halloween?! Here's the latest on our wintry day ahead

Halloween may be a scary day with different ghosts, ghouls and goblins, but Mother Nature may be the scariest thing of all as we round out October and begin November. 

Winter Weather Advisories for wintry precipitation (mainly snow) stretch from Texas to Illinois as of 2 p.m. EDT Wednesday.
Parts of Illinois and Iowa already saw accumulating snow -- including the Chicago metro -- during the early morning hours of Wednesday.

But there's more on the way for the Wednesday evening to Thursday night period. And this time, we here in Michiana will get in on the wintry fun.

Total snowfall for South Bend according to 5 different models.
While we aren't expecting a whole lot in the way of accumulation, the potential is very much there for grassy and elevated surfaces to turn white by the late afternoon and evening hours on Halloween. At least in spots. 

It comes down to a few factors...

  • How heavy the snow falls
  • Exact temperatures at your location
  • Will it be too windy?
  • Will the wet and warm ground prevent everything from sticking?

Probability of at least 1 Probability of at least 1
Most things will go against us seeing more than an inch or so of snow. It is possible that a couple of locations pick up 1-2" of wet snow on cars, rooftops, mulch and grassy areas, etc. if it snows heavily enough once rain changes to snow.

Regardless of accumulation amounts, we are expecting snow to fly for many at some point late in the day Thursday.

That changeover is likely in the 2-5 p.m. window with precipitation falling as a rain-snow mix or entirely snow for most by 5 p.m.

Wind gust potential Halloween afternoon and evening.
The snow -- or rain-snow mix -- could fall thru 7-9 p.m. before coming to an end. To add insult to injury, temperatures will be very cold and wind gusts will ramp up by the afternoon of Halloween. 

Gusts could reach 35-45 mph late in the afternoon and evening, making for a simply awful Trick-or-Treat experience when you combine the precipitation with the wind and cold.

In fact, the combination of strong winds and temperatures in the 30s will lead to "feels like" temperatures in the 20s for Trick-or-Treat hours. 

Possible Possible
By Friday morning, the bottom will fall out in terms of our temperatures. Actual temps will drop into the upper 20s with "feels like" temps as low as 15°. That will make for a bitterly cold start to the day on Friday. 

It'll be the coldest air mass we've seen since last Spring without question.

A period of large waves of 7-14' is expected from Porter County to Allegan County.
Something else to consider with this wintry system will be the large to very large waves along the lakeshore. Waves will likely pick up Thursday morning and grow throughout the day.

Maximum wave heights of 10-14' are likely across the southern half of Lake Michigan Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with most waves around 8-11'. 

This will add to shoreline erosion, dune erosion and coastal flooding concerns before waves relax by Friday morning.

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