Nov. 2015: Possibly the warmest November on record for South Bend

Flashback to November 4th when high temperatures rose to 75°, breaking a 37-year record of 74° from 1978.  That was Day 3 of a 4-day streak with high temperatures reaching into the 70s (Fig. 1).  We typically see highs in the 70s in September, but this was the beginning of November when the normal high is 55° (Fig. 2).  Through November 18th, 16 days have been at or above normal, which leaves just two days falling short of the normal.  With high temperatures nearly doubling the normal highs for this time of year, it’s not surprising that South Bend is on track for breaking another record- the warmest November yet.

Figure 3 shows the list of the top 10 warmest Novembers on record.  These numbers are computed using both the high and the low temperatures for each day.  As of November 18th, the average temperature for November 2015 is 49.5°, which is slightly warmer than the warmest November on record from 1931 (Fig. 4).

Now, if we continue on the track we are on, there’s no doubt that we will surpass the old record set back in 1931.  However, we are tracking colder temperatures in the 10-day forecast.  To put it into perspective, in order for this month to be the warmest November yet, the average temperature needs to be at least 48.1° for the rest of the month according to the National Weather Service of Northern Indiana.  If the average temperature from November 19th through November 30th is just 48.0°, then this will not top the list in Figure 3.  As always, the ABC57 Weather Team will keep our eyes on this possibly record-breaking event as we get closer to the end of the month.