Super Snow Sunday
Update 2:20 PM SUN: Already 10"-12" on the ground for most of Michiana, this make 16" (or more possible). Everyone should still expect around 1 foot of snow. Blowing and drifting will also worsen as the wind picks-up to the 20 mph rage, gusts topping 30. Temperatures drop tonight, single digits by Monday morning. This will only harden the snow pack making travel still very difficult. Plan on restricted or limited travel through Monday.
Update 9:30 PM SAT: The snow has already started to fall in Pulaski & Starke Counties. The radar is indicating that a light rain/snow mix is occurring as temperatures are still right above freezing in most spots. These should change over to all snow by 11pm. We are still on track to see between 10-15" of snow through Monday morning.
Update 4:00 PM SAT: The models continue to bring up the snowfall totals as a WINTER STORM WARNING has been issued from 7PM SAT - 4AM MON. With the latest model run, 10-15" of snow is possible for the midsection of Michiana (area highlighted in pink) through Monday morning. Again, the impacts have remained relevant as whiteout conditions, blowing/drifting snow especially Sunday afternoon when the heaviest snowfall moves through. Driving conditions will become treacherous especially by the afternoon hours, with some roads likely becoming impassable as early as the evening hours.
Update 10:30 PM FRI: In the first of what could be many updates over the next 36 hrs. With each model run totals become more and more focused. After two additional model runs this evening, the trend shows higher snowfall amounts trending northward. Moved the 8"-10" line into southwest Michigan (Fig 4). Now most of Michiana should plan for 8"-10" of snow, with blowing and drifting. The question will still be where localized higher amounts are possible.
This is the first major winter storm of the season. So far, clipper and lake effect events have brought snowfall with mostly light or localized impacts. This system will bring a widespread swath of heavy snow to most of the region.
Models continue to confirm that this will be a high impact event, as snow totals have only trended upwards for the area. The fine details will be which area sees the most snowfall.
Timing (Fig 1). snow starts to fall just before midnight Saturday, you cant expect a few inches on the ground by Sunday morning ( Fig 2). Snow then ramps-up through midday peaking around noon with +6" on the ground (Fig 3 & 4) and another 4"-6" inches possible through midnight.
Final totals, at this time there is high confidence of 6"-8" of snow for the area with 8"-10" likely for the southern half of Michiana. The question will be where and if the +10" localized band falls. Latest model trends show the highest probability along the US-30 corridor.
Wind will also have an impact gusting out out of the northwest at more that 20 mph, blowing and drifting will keep roads treacherous through Monday.
Stay with the ABC-57 First Warning Neighborhood Weather team as we track this storm. The fine details are likely to change, but the impact will stay the same.
Use #SuperSnow57 on twitter and share your reports on this Super Bowl Sunday snow.