The impact of President Trump's endorsements in Indiana primaries

GRANGER, IN - Longtime incumbent state senator Linda Rogers was one of at least five Hoosier republicans ousted by a Trump-backed challenger.

Dr. Brian Schmutzler defeated Rogers on Tuesday night, moving on to face democrat Gabrianna Gratzol in November.

After a failed redistricting effort in the state senate back in December, President Trump vowed to back primary challengers.

Linda Rogers was called out more than once by President Trump since she voted against redistricting, a decision she has stood by.

She most recently said this to ABC57’s Jordan Tolbert on Friday, May 1:

“When I looked at the maps, I realized, not only did the people of the district not want them, I thought they were very risky. And so I stand by my decision to vote no,” said Rogers.

Elizabeth Bennion, Chancellor's Professor of Political Science at IU South Bend, says this was not about Rogers’ voting record.

“It really is a loyalty test. It is about one vote, the redistricting vote, because there was a promise to primary those who voted against it. There was then follow-through. And so, the big difference and the decision-maker here was that endorsement from the president,” said Bennion.

She says political scientists have been looking into the nationalization of state politics, in the context of political polarization and seeing national influence making an impact.

“This election was definitely the one that was definitive and shows us, in a surprising way, that the total combination of local political forces that usually matter, endorsements by groups like Right to Life and the National Rifle Association, just didn't seem to matter compared to the Trump endorsement and national forces, including Club for Growth and Turning Point USA,” said Bennion.

Bennion says typically, primary races are ‘relatively sleepy’ elections.

She says a lot of outside money has been poured into these races.

“We were seeing spending levels that were more similar to a congressional race than a state legislative race, so that certainly made a difference in terms of getting people out and trying to both mobilize people and persuade them to vote against these incumbents,” said Bennion.

Recent data from AdImpact shows how ad spending this cycle for the Indiana state senate primaries compares with previous cycles.

It reported more than $13 million in ad spending this cycle, a more than 4,700 percent increase from last cycle. The tally showed that at least 8 million dollars of the ad spending was from groups opposing the incumbents, according to ABC News.