Weathering the War: Strain of Hormuz

Weathering the War: Strain of Hormuz

SOUTH BEND, Ind. -- A recent ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found that half of Americans expect gas prices to increase further in the next year, and about a quarter said they are falling behind financially.

Monica Robinson was born and raised in South Bend. She’s a mom of two, a realtor, and in her words, an ‘elder Millennial,’ born in 1981.

Generation X and Millennials make up most of America’s labor force.

Robinson says Millennials have had it pretty hard.

“I mean, like, we've been through this whole recession game, high gas prices before. I mean, it's just been like non-stop, like, hurdle after hurdle after hurdle,” said Robinson. “The Boomers had a pretty easy time of buying homes. Even Gen X, I would say, had a pretty easier time of buying homes. The barrier for buying homes for my age and younger is just ridiculous that I didn't buy my first home until I was in my 40s.”

She rents out her home as an Airbnb as an extra revenue stream. Robinson says even though she works hard and has an annual income, she's still concerned about affordability.

“What am I doing? I can't afford to get a new car. I can't afford to update my house. I can't afford to do the things that I want to do or even go on a vacation. Like, I'm just struggling to pay for groceries,” said Robinson.

Professor Philip Powell, PhD, is the Executive Director of the Indiana Business Research Center at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business.

He says Millennials and Gen Z face an unfair affordability situation.

“Generation Z and Millennials, because of the unaffordability crisis that they face and the questions in the job market, they're going to move more conservatively, and that's going to stimulate the economy less. And so, in terms of long-term stimulation of the economy from Generation Z and the Millennials, it's less than it was for Generation X and Baby Boomers,” said Powell.

As far as the economy, though, Powell says the fundamentals are in good shape.

“When I look at what really worries me as an economist, is if the banks are not well capitalized, if households and businesses are way overleveraged or have too much debt, or if there's some systematic bubble in the stock market, and at least the first three of those four, I'm not worried,” said Powell.

Beyond AI stocks due for a short-term correction, Powell says the only thing holding the economy back is the psychology of uncertainty related to questions coming out of Washington.

Andrew Butters, PhD, is an associate professor of Business Economics & Public Policy at IU’s Kelley School of Business. In his own view, Butters thinks the economy overall is in a healthy state.

Butters says the war in Iran has caused energy prices to rise substantially and slowed targets of inflation. Inflation, he says, is a measure of change, not the price level.

“So, we had a huge wave of inflation come up, following the pandemic recession and while we've seen a lot of progress, inflation is actually still above what say the Federal Reserve's target would be,” said Butters.

He thinks the inflationary wave is over and foresees more progress ahead, though he notes the volatility of energy prices right now.

“It comes down to, you know, preferred targets, but this war and energy prices specifically, and how volatile and unpredictable they can be. That is obviously the part that, again, I —and perhaps all good economists would be acknowledging, is very difficult to forecast. So, again, if this conflict were to continue, or if the war were to get worse, for instance, and supply challenges when it comes to oil and other energy commodities were to materialize, then you absolutely could potentially see an uptick, which would be not unlike what we'd seen, what we've seen in prior, prior periods in the US economy,” said Butters.

Professor Powell says it’s clear Washington and Tehran are acting as if they want a settlement, which he says is good news.

“This is why oil prices have stabilized or have gone— have you know, we've hit the ceiling. It's come down a little bit because markets expect that there's going to be a short-term resolution here, because the pain to both countries is just too big, and the pressure from all other countries to solve this is huge. So, this oil price spike could reverse itself pretty quickly,” said Powell. “The Supreme Court has already put boundaries on what the administration can do with tariffs, and there's not as much political appetite for the type of immigration enforcement that we saw in 2025 so those are three big sources of uncertainty that can quickly reverse themselves, which means if that happens, the US economy will return to its potential like we're used to in the third or fourth quarter 2026.”

Michiana Financial Planner Edward Camp of Camp Wealth Management* explains how people of all generations can make financial decisions that might help insulate them from potential economic uncertainty in the future.

“You do need to build up a cushion first for emergencies, and that is normally in safer and liquid money. So, as you're putting together a program for saving, you probably have to start with that, that could be the most imminent threat to you. And then you think more in terms of your intermediate money and your longer-term money,” said Camp.

Ryan Ollar is a financial advisor at Camp Wealth Management. He explains how each generation has different sets of values, which shape their work, life, and choices.

“We found that Millennials tend to value meaning in their lives, and Gen X tends to value Independence above many other things, and then people in the Baby Boomer generation tend to strive for achievement, and all of those things are fine, what's important to them, but you just have to realize that there are pros and cons to each of those. If you're searching for meaning throughout life, that might cause you to have to work longer,” said Ollar. “At the end of the day, the same financial rule applies across all generations, regardless of what you're striving for and that is, are you living below your means, and are you saving the difference?”

Camp says long-term thinking is a major part of financial planning, so set achievable goals and be willing to endure a little pain.

*Advisory Services are offered through Creative Financial Designs, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser, and Securities are offered through CFD Investments, Inc., a Registered Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA & SIPC, 2704 S. Goyer Rd., Kokomo, IN 46902.

Close